I recently had an opportunity to give a talk to the Filosofic Club of Kiev, Ukraine on a swing through the region. The club is a gathering of intellectual, business and media leaders in the city, and was a great experience. Unlike most standup presentations followed by a Q&A, this event allowed attendees to actiively debate the concepts I presented, and discuss their own models and worldviews. I found it a refreshing learning experience, particularly understanding different views of time and the future in a country where change is often not very far away.

This particular event was held between the presidential primary and a hotly contested run-off between Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yukanovich. Touring the encampments set up to shelter protestors from each party on a cold Sunday night showed that in many places, it isn't just technology that determines the pace of change—in this case, forces in politics, economics and domestic society were a much stronger trigger, and Ukrainians could see two distinct paths before them.

The overall talk focused on recent forecasts of global economic drivers and outcomes, and how these forecasts have not come to pass. Countries like Ukraine are caught between these forecasted futures—one driven by developed countries, and one powered by the BRICs. Increasingly, it looks like Ukraine and other "middle tier" countries will have to build their own, from the bottom up, with innovation at the local level.

I look forward to going back for a longer visit to the country and region. In the meantime, below are slides from the talk.

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I had a great opportunity to kick off Lift@home Toronto a few weeks ago (thanks to a generous invite and lodgings from the excellent Tom Purves and Michele Perras), which for the occasion merged with DemoCamp and challenged all comers to demo a concept for 2019. Many of my favorite Torontonians were in attendance, and the evening's proceedings were set in the suitably retro Canadian Corps hall—something akin to a US Elk's Lodge hall, complete with bowling trophies and cheap beer.

My task was to set the mood, so I decided to go a little deep and psychological. Inspired by recent work by past Lift speakers like Bruce Sterling, Julian Bleecker, Nicolas Nova and Genevieve Bell, as well as Matt Jones and the folks at BERG, I built my talk around the journey from those influences that shape our worldviews about the future to the processes by which we extract and project those views through design fiction. After all, creating demos of products or services for 2019 requires a good deal of design fiction, whether we know it or not. We are taking what we believe, fear, hope for and expect about the future—our own biases, mental dots and loops—and putting them in physical form as we create scenarios, narratives, artifacts and experiences that communicate this future view to others. It's hard to be neutral when we talk about the future. We ultimately end up trying to persuade others to believe in our own internal stories.

Thinking about this process within myself, I realized some time ago that part of what drives me to do what I do is the experience as a child of living on the edge of the future as a citizen, beneficiary and occasional victim of the amazing new economy sprawl that was Atlanta in the 1960s—1980s. Since my childhood, the city has undergone more than a trebling of its population—from about 1.5 million to over 5 million. With that it expanded out into new suburbs, up in the the form of multiple cores of skyscrapers and highrises, and down in the shape of modern mass transit. It also grew inward, becoming one of the first reasonably integrated cities, mixing not only black and white, straight and gay, but fed by an increasingly international population of immigrants, businesspeople and money. All in all, it was what might be described as a post-modern American, and even world, city. Fittingly it ended the 1990s as an Olympic city, a few years after I left.

This experience of rapidly exploding growth, technology, social convergence, media (my hometown was after all the birthplace of CNN), politics, not to mention heat, humidity and distinctive red mud all shaped my path as an observer, interpreter, analyst and forecaster, in much the same way growing up in a post-90s Moscow or 2000s Lagos might. It colors the design fiction in my own mind. It makes me aware of the downsides of "progress" but it also makes me optimistic about what's possible.

I closed by asking the group what our future design fiction will be. What are the prototypes, situations and images we want to explore? Thirty years ago it was Omega Man and Soylent Green with their disease and decay. Twenty years ago it swung the other way to Blade Runner, an uncontrollable but undeniably sexy future. Lately it's been 28 Days Later and District 9, full of "The Other", internment camps and infection (again). What do we want it to be next? Time to make it happen. 

Photo by aslakr

I started this post two months ago and it got lost in the shuffle of travel. Given this post by on the World Bank blog today, it seemed appropriate to finish it: 

When it comes to digital tools for learning in developing countries, is it better to start with a simple, if less full-featured, approach that can act as a building block, or hold out for the dream of a fully connected information powerhouse in the hand of each child? This is sure to be a controversial topic, but one worth exploring.

It's also one which we've already had some conversations about with people on both the technology and the development side, which we want to open up to wider discussion. It is a discussion that centers on what kind of technology approach might best provide a boost to students in the developing world and goes straight to the heart of how we approach ICT4D issues.

Bright minds have spent the past decade mulling how to get PCs with Internet access onto the desks of students in the developing world, and in the past few years a small army has spent thousands of hours and probably millions of dollars creating and deploying pilot devices with this aim in mind (see an index of many of these devices here). With the falling cost of notebook computers, their lighter, mobile form factor seemed to make this device the focal point, culiminating in the grandiose vision that became the OLPC—a small, durable, long-life, connected device that could deliver education, communication and creativity the far corners of the world at an affordable price. As we have seen, this vision was never realized, and while some devices made it to their destination, they never reached the pipe dream of the $100 price point, and maybe as many ended up in kid's bedrooms in the developed world.

As mobile phone penetration exploded in the developing world in the meantime, it didn't take a genius to recognize that a potentially powerful platform was already present, or would be soon, in many pockets, bookbags and villages. Simple, networked, less expensive than a PC and far more attainable, the humble handset is being turned to as a new possibility for delivering education to places like sub-Saharan Africa. 

But what about something in between, like an e-reader? With a larger screen size than a mobile, emerging e-readers sport connectivity (either Wi-Fi or cellular) that was optimized for downloading material for reading, and possibly other basic functions such as annotation, simple short messaging and pushing activity reports back upstream. The coming crop of e-readers have a number of things that make them attractive for educational use, particularly in less delicate environments:

• They are being built to be more durable as designers get a better idea of usage patterns.
• Functionality is being created around connectivity—not just for downloading books, but for more connection between booksellers and readers, and among readers.
• They are being designed with low power consumption in mind.
• Display technology is being optimized as well to aid in low power consumption and readability in many environments.
• More of these readers are designed to take advantage of open publishing standards, making them open to a huge library of public domain texts or those distributed with an open license.
• Touch-ready displays enable adding multilingual support and handwriting capture and recognition—a virtual slate in effect.

• Connectivity essentially makes them go, and larger processors invite the need for more bandwidth. Kicking the door open to the full Web isn't necessarily a good thing simply from the connectivity and support level alone. 
• Licensing fees for applications and operating systems often push the margin beyond the ability to afford these devices, even with the sweetest deals.
• Many moving parts mean more servicing requirements.
• Special "netbook" OSs often mean dumbing down a more powerful device. Why bother to introduce it if you can't use it to its fullest potential?

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As I was listening to a conversation with a Cisco exec this morning on BBC, an additional take on why the lower reaches of the pyramid are becoming fertile ground for innovation around technology and new business models emerged that is counterintuitive to the way business have thought about low-income consumers before. Cisco's Chris Dedicote, who I wrote about last year for Worldchanging, talked about how the fact that consumers have little extra money to spend is precisely what is making them potential early adopters of new technologies and models like smart energy meters and new forms of mobile banking (and one could add things like low-emission city cars, upcycled materials, and on and on the list goes). 

 
(Republished from Some Observers)